Appendix M Traffic Study
An EIS must be a document with scientific integrity. NEPA demands an unbiased evaluation of environmental effects. (NRDC v. Callaway (1975) 524 F.2d 79.) Sources of information must be footnoted. (40 CFR 1502.24.) Study methodologies and model limitations must be disclosed and explained. (Lands Council v. Powell (2004, 9th Cir.) 395 F.3d 1019, 1036-1037.) Stale data cannot be used in an impact analysis to support an agency conclusion. (Lands Council v. Powell (2004, 9th Cir) 395 F.3d 1019, 1035.) “A patently inaccurate factual contention can never support an agency’s determination that a project will have ‘no significant impact’ on the environment.” (Ocean Advocates v. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (2005, 9th Cir.) 402 F.3d 846.) In the Final EIS, correct the errors in methodology noted below.
The EIS said, Summary. Pg 1: “There are no published trip generation rates for casinos by the transportation industry standard the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE). The generation rates used within were developed by Analytical Environmental Services (AES) through survey of eight existing casino in the region.”
Comments:
- Why were the names and location of those casinos plus their roadway infrastructure not listed in appendix M? (They may have been listed in traffic study appendices A through AC but those documents were not provided.)
- Is the Tribe aware that the claim of no published generation rates is blatantly false? There was a study published in the ITE journal, ITE Date: 5/1992 vol. 62, no. 5, titled, Trip generation rates for Las Vegas area hotel-casinos By Kenneth Ackeret and Robert Hosea. A copy follows these comments.
- Why didn’t the tribe develop data on the relationship between traffic counts and casino size, hotel rooms, and employees? (The study clearly demonstrated a relationship between traffic counts and casino size, hotel rooms, and employees. The developed equation which correlated the traffic counts at 21 adjacent strip casinos may not be applicable to a single destination casino in a rural location, but it does validate the use of casino square footage as a valid predictor.
- Why didn’t the Tribe use the SANDAG method to develop traffic Counts? The SANDAG method is a well known industry standard based on the square footage of the gaming facility. This methodology has been validated in studies from the San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG) from data derived from that area’s 12 Indian Gaming facilities. That generation rate is 100 trips per 1000sq. ft and 8 trips per hotel room.
- Why was the SANDAG method valid for the Buena Vista Casino but not The Ione casino? The SANDAG method was used in the Buena Vista traffic EIS and is in fact mentioned in Section 6 pg. 187 of Appendix M.)
- How can the Tribe discount the SANDAG method when it was validated by the Jackson Rancheria traffic data? The SANDAG method also predicted the actual traffic counts for the Jackson Rancheria within a hundred trips (data attached) and would seem to be the preferred methodology for this project.
- How does the Tribe explain the discrepancies in Traffic ADT’s using their methodology when compared to the relevant industry standard methodology? The following table illustrates the EIS under projection (tables 4-1 through 4-7) of expected traffic counts when compared to the SANDAG methodology.
- Is the Tribe deliberately underestimating the Traffic impact of this casino project in order to evade mitigation requirements?
|
Alternative
|
Casino size
|
Hotel size
|
AES Casino
|
AES Hotel
|
AES total
|
SANDAG Casino
|
SANDAG Hotel
|
SANDAG Total
|
under-estimate
|
|
A phase 1
|
120,000
|
none
|
8,149
|
0
|
8,149
|
12,000
|
0
|
12,000
|
-3,851
|
|
A phase 2
|
120,000
|
250 room
|
8,149
|
745
|
8,894
|
12,000
|
2,000
|
14,000
|
-5,106
|
|
B
|
100,750
|
250 room
|
6,875
|
745
|
7,620
|
10,075
|
2,000
|
12,075
|
-4,455
|
|
C
|
79,250
|
none
|
5,408
|
0
|
5,408
|
7,925
|
0
|
7,925
|
-2,517
|
|
D
|
123250 shop
|
none
|
5,292
|
0
|
5,292
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
Quote from Section 2. Pg. 15: “For this casino project, the highest project trips would occur during the weekday evening (PM) commute peak period. According to the 24-hour volume counts, the weekend peak period for a casino occurs on Saturdays also between the evening hours of 4-6 PM. These time periods are considered the peak periods because the project is expected to have the greatest impact on the local roadway network during these time periods.”
Comments:
- Why did the tribe fail to account for special events at the Amador County Fair and the Wineries in the Shenandoah Valley? The Amador County Transportation Commission maintains data for peak month ADT’s which account for special event winery traffic and Amador County Fair ground events which on occasion can even exceed peak PM periods.
- Why didn’t the EIS account for peak monthly ADT’s? Amador County Transportation Commission peak monthly ADT’s range between .4% (SR49 S SR16) and 25% (SR88 W SR124) higher with an average increase of 11% (RTP data).
- Is the Tribe unaware of the traffic problems associated with Amador County Fair and Winery special events? Data which does not account for peak month ADT’s seriously understates the negative potential impact of Casino traffic and has the potential of severely impacting special events at the Amador County Fair and Amador County Wineries.
- Is the Tribe willing to mitigate the Amador County Fair for lost revenue for events that are dropped because of the negative effects of increased traffic?
- Is the Tribe willing to mitigate the wineries for lost revenue due to a decline in attendance at events that are negatively affected by increased traffic?
- Will the Tribe mitigate local businesses that make a significant amount of revenue based on attendance at these events?
Section 2, Pg.22: Level of service (LOS) and average daily traffic (ADT) are published for 5 locations and based on June 2004 data.
-SR 49 N. of Shenandoah Rd.
-SR 49 S of SR16.
-SR16 W of Old Sac Rd. .
-SR124 S of SR16.
-SR88 W of SR124.
Comments:
- Why is there no explanation for the discrepancy between machine counts generated Daily traffic Volumes and the ADT’s listed in the EIS Tables? Automated machine counts were conducted for the road segments in question and displayed in figure 2-3 as Existing daily traffic Volumes, but the ADT’s listed are lower by 15%, 45%, 43%, 47%, and 43% respectively.)
- What methodology was used by the Tribe to reduce the daily Traffic volume counts to the published ADT’s? According to phone conversations with Caltrans, reductions of this magnitude only make sense for extreme recreational areas like high sierra’s which are seasonally affected, not for road counts in the foothill area.
- Why was there no explanation given to justify this questionable reduction which resulted in improved LOS’s in 3 of the 5 segments analyzed? The EIS states the calculations were in the Appendices not provided.
- Why does the EIS not include data for traffic counts and ADT’s for Latrobe road? Latrobe Road is a more direct and more frequently used route from SR50 to Plymouth than is SR49.
- Did Latrobe’s poorer material condition relative to SR49 influence its omission?
- Why were traffic counts omitted from other intersecting roads and sources? Data also omits traffic generated within Plymouth (S of Shenandoah Road and N of SR16 / SR49 intersection) and the traffic entering SR16/SR49 from Fiddletown Road. There is a large volume of both Shenandoah Valley and Up-county traffic whose only realistic access to SR16 is from Fiddletown Road.)
- Was it the Tribe’s intent to generate lower ADT’s by omitting traffic from local Plymouth residences, Fiddletown Road traffic, and Latrobe Road traffic?
- Why is the data arbitrarily reduced by 3% for traffic that initially set out for the Ione casino but decided to go to the Jackson Rancheria instead?
- Other than lowering ADT’s how can the change in destination from the Ione Casino to the Jackson Rancheria be justified?
- Why didn’t the Tribe include an increase in traffic from a change in destination from the Jackson Rancheria to the Ione Casino?
Section 3, Pg.29/30: ….annual growth rate based on Caltrans historical data… traffic count data or historical data was as listed in the State’s website for state routes. The ADT roadway segment volumes for 2006 EPEP (No Project) Condition were calculated by applying a 2.2 percent annual growth rate to existing ADT roadway volumes. [Note EPAP=Existing Plus Approved Projects}
Comments:
- Why doesn’t the Tribe’s EIS use the actual traffic growth rates for the road segments in question instead of using 2.2% as an average? (Data received from Joe Avis (916-654-3072) research Manager at Caltrans indicates that assigning a 2.2% growth rate for ADT’s to be significantly understated:
o Caltrans growth rate for SR 49 south of SR 16 is 3.9% for 2004-2006.
o Caltrans growth rate for SR 49 North of SR 16 is 3.08% for 2004-2006.
o Caltrans growth rate for SR 88 west of SR 124 is 2.83% for 2004-2006.)
- Where are the calculations justifying the 2.2% growth rate? Valid ADT’s can only be generated by using
current growth data for each segment.
Section 4, Pg.50: Trip distribution patterns to and from the project site were obtained from a zip code based origin and destination study for similar casinos in Northern California.
Comments:
- What was the methodology and the specific road infrastructure that justified using the distribution patterns in the EIS? The only valid trip distribution pattern should be based on the Jackson Rancheria due to the unique Amador County road network and the relative geographic position of the large population centers.
- Why were the location of the cited similar casinos not stipulated in appendix M?
- IS the Data listed in the mitigation tables realistic or purposely underestimated? Data listed in tables 4-8, 4-13, 4-18, 4-23, and 4-33 are significantly lower than what the more realistic SANDAG methodology would have produced.
Appendix M, Section 4 contains the intersection LOS’s and the proposed mitigation fixes with their attendant LOS’s for a predicted “no project” condition and five different project variations. This data is collated in chart form for both weekday and Saturday PM peak hour. For ease of discussion the attached chart (intersection matrix.xls) is a compilation of the data for worst movement weekday PM peak hour in charts 4-9. 4-11, 4-14, and 4-16.
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#
|
Intersection
|
2004 no proj
|
signal
|
2006 no proj
|
2006 Ph I
|
2006 mitigation
|
2009 no proj
|
2009 PhII
|
2009 mitigation
|
|
1
|
SR49 / Miller Road
|
A
|
|
A
|
A
|
|
A
|
A
|
|
|
2
|
SR 49 / Main Street
|
C
|
|
C
|
D
|
A - RTP & Light.
|
D
|
E
|
A - RTP & Light.
|
|
3
|
SR 49 / Popular Street
|
B
|
|
B
|
B
|
|
B
|
B
|
|
|
4
|
SR 49 / Empire Street
|
C
|
|
C
|
D
|
A - RTP & Light.
|
D
|
D
|
A - RTP & Light.
|
|
5
|
SR 49 / SR 16
|
D
|
Y-06
|
D
|
F
|
B - Caltrans Lt (done)
|
E
|
F
|
B - Caltrans Lt (done)
|
|
6
|
SR 16 / SR 124
|
B
|
|
B
|
C
|
|
C
|
C
|
|
|
7
|
SR 16 / LatrobeRoad (Amador)
|
C
|
|
C
|
D
|
C - add lanes
|
C
|
D
|
C - add lanes
|
|
8
|
SR 104 (Preston Ave)
/ SR 124
|
E
|
|
F
|
F
|
A - Signal Lt.
|
F
|
F
|
A - Signal Lt.
|
|
9
|
SR 104 (Main Street)
/ SR 124
|
C
|
|
C
|
D
|
A - Signal Lt.
|
C
|
E
|
A - Signal Lt.
|
|
10
|
SR 88 / SR 124
|
B
|
|
B
|
B
|
|
B
|
B
|
|
|
11
|
SR 88 / SR 12 (East)
|
D
|
|
E
|
F
|
B - Caltrans plan light
|
F
|
F
|
B - Caltrans plan light
|
|
12
|
SR 88 / SR 12 (West)
|
F
|
|
F
|
F
|
C - Caltrans plan light
|
F
|
F
|
C - Caltrans plan light
|
|
13
|
SR 88 / Kettleman Lane
|
C
|
Y
|
C
|
C
|
|
C
|
C
|
|
|
14
|
SR 49 / Pleasant Valley
Road
|
C
|
|
C
|
D
|
|
D
|
D
|
|
|
15
|
SR 16 / Ione Road
|
C
|
|
C
|
C
|
|
C
|
C
|
|
|
16
|
SR 16 / Murieta Pkwy South
|
B
|
Y
|
B
|
B
|
|
B
|
B
|
|
|
17
|
SR 16 / Murieta Parkway
|
C
|
Y
|
B
|
B
|
|
B
|
C
|
|
|
18
|
SR 16 / Stone House
Road
|
E
|
|
E
|
F
|
D - add lanes
|
F
|
F
|
D - Sac plan to 4 lanes
|
|
19
|
SR 16 / Latrobe
Road (Sac)
|
D
|
|
D
|
E
|
|
E
|
F
|
E - add lanes
|
|
20
|
SR 16 / Dilliard Road
|
B
|
Y
|
B
|
B
|
|
B
|
B
|
|
|
21
|
SR 16 / Sloughhouse Road
|
C
|
|
C
|
C
|
|
C
|
C
|
|
|
22
|
SR 16 / Grant Line
Road
|
E
|
Y
|
E
|
F
|
E - add lanes
|
F
|
F
|
E - add lanes
|
|
23
|
SR 16 / Sunrise
Blvd
|
C
|
Y
|
C
|
D
|
|
D
|
D
|
|
|
24
|
SR 16 / Excelsior
Road
|
F
|
|
F
|
F
|
B - Sac plan (done)
|
F
|
F
|
B - Sac plan (done)
|
|
25
|
SR 16 / Bradshaw
Road
|
C
|
Y
|
C
|
C
|
|
D
|
E
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Comments:
- Why were the following intersections omitted from the Tables?
o SR 16 / Kiefer Blvd (serious congestion today because of K1-6 school at intersection) *major concern
o SR 16 / Old Sacramento Rd. (alternate route out of Plymouth to SR 16 via Main Street)
o SR 16 / Carbondale Rd. (access to Willow Springs development)
o SR 16 / Greilich, Willow Creek, Welsh Pond, Forest Home, Long Gate, Michigan Bar
o Meiss, and other smaller roads some of which provide access to small developments.
o SR 88 / Buena Vista Rd. & Jackson Valley Road (access to Buena Vista)
- Was the disregarding of major intersections on the studied arterials intentional?
- Why is no mitigation offered for two intersections listed in tables 4-9 and 4-14 for both the 2006 and 2009 EPAP Conditions have LOS degradation from level C to D in 2006 and a level D in 2009 (SR 49 / Pleasant Valley Road & SR 16 / Sunrise Blvd.)?
- How can the EIS claim mitigation for a SR 16 / Stone House rd. & SR 16 / Grant Line Rd. by referencing a 1993 Sacramento Co. general plan dated 1993 with no actual improvements actually being scheduled? The Sac. general plan actually suggest widening SR 16 to 4 lanes.
- Why are no details given for the mitigation of intersections SR 49 / Main Street and SR 49 / Empire Street other than the reference to the regional traffic Plan?
- Why is there no mitigation of SR 104 (Preston) / SR 124 on listed on pages 83 & 94? (charts show signal)
- Why are most mitigation efforts applied to intersections with no mention of the degradation to arterial movement that will ensue from signalizing the mitigated intersections when large increases in ADT’s is projected?
- Was this EIS provided to Sacramento, San Joaquin, and El Dorado Counties for their input on traffic flow?
CONCLUSION:
Was the EIS Traffic Study actually a carefully prepared retro-analysis? The Appendix M Traffic Study appears to have evolved by a process of retro-analysis where the money allocated for mitigation was determined in advance and the data was then processed to achieve the desired result. How else to explain the undercount of casino trips, the discrepancy between traffic volume and ADT’s, the omission of significant arterial roads and intersections and the reliance of unscheduled general plan improvements for mitigation?
Appendix M is seriously flawed both in data collection and analysis. It seriously understates the potential traffic impacts for this proposed project and is essentially worthless as a tool for determining mitigation. Essentially, the Traffic Analysis needs to be redone using current data which includes all effected roads and intersections and a valid methodology (SANDAG) that does not significantly underestimate the potential traffic growth from this project.
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