The impact of the Casino on traffic will effect everyone in the Plymouth area regardless of where you live because the primary arteries into the area will be negatively impacted. There have been lots of numbers bandied about concerning the Traffic Impact of the proposed casino in Plymouth. The following explanation will not only demonstrate where the data originates from but also conclusively prove it’s validity.

The starting point for the statistical analysis is the latest data for State Highways from the Caltrans Average Daily Traffic (ADT) count for the year 2002. It is listed in Column I of Table I. The source is either the mechanical devices stretched across the road that count cars as they pass or in some cases the traffic light sequencing devices embedded in the road itself. The numbers for New York Ranch Road and Ridge Road in Table 2 come from Amador County and are current for the year 2003.

As we all know, the volume of traffic on California roads gets worse every year. Caltrans measures the statewide growth rate, and for the last three years it has averaged around was 3%. The standard industry method used to gauge the traffic impact of a new casino is based on the square footage of the gaming facility. The Institute of Traffic Engineers uses a complicated mathematical formula to generate peak AM and PM rates for casino traffic. A simpler method, statistically validated by actual traffic counts at California Indian casinos, was devised by the San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG). The SANDAG method estimates an average daily count based on 100 trips per 1000 sq. ft. of gaming facility and is currently the accepted method for judging traffic impacts for California Indian casinos.

Columns II and III of Table I are the projected 2003 and 2008 ADT numbers. They were generated by mathematically increasing the actual 2002 average daily traffic count by 3% per year. The ADT counts cars going in both directions. These numbers should give you a feel for how traffic will increase through normal growth rates. However, casinos generate abnormal growth and will affect future projections adversely. The Jackson Rancheria is currently expanding their casino by 100,000 square feet. That equates to an additional 10,000 daily trips as calculated using the SANDAG method. However, with access to the Rancheria provided by two Highways, 16/49 and 88, it is logical to increase the Highway 16/49 count by half that number. Therefore, conservatively, an additional 5000 daily trips were added to the 2004 projected numbers which is the estimated completion date and listed in Column IV of Table I. This number was then projected to 2008 and listed in Column V of Table I.

The Plymouth number in Column VI of Table I was calculated using the SANDAG method for the proposed 120,000 sq. ft. casino with an estimated completion date of 2008. This would add 12,000 daily trips to the previously calculated numbers. No attempt was made to guess how the traffic might access Plymouth only that it is the point destination. The end result, as you can see, is an ADT count of 19256, which is over three times greater than the current level in Plymouth. If two thirds of these cars were to use Highway 16 the ADT for that road would also increase dramatically. These numbers were calculated using Caltrans averages. However, Caltrans also provides a peak ADT for the highest use month. Using the peak month number of 6800 for 2001and running through the same calculations, as above, a peak month ADT of 20236 was generated.

TABLE 1: FUTURE TRAFFIC PROJECTIONS

Footnotes:

• Source: Phone conversation with Joe Avis (916-654-3072) research Manager Caltrans/history and current.
• Math convention: numbers rounded up/down at .5 to keep car count whole number
• Caltrans 3yr average growth rate from 2000 through 2002 was 3% (see Source)
• Casino increases based on the SANDAG methodology of 100 cars per 1000 square feet of casino space. (Rancheria exp.- 100,000sq.ft./Plymouth - 120,000sq.ft.)
• Rancheria expansion number (5000 added in 2004) assumes that only half of the increased traffic count will use Hwy 16

  How do you know that the projected traffic count for the proposed Plymouth casino is a valid number and not something concocted to make it look bad? The Jackson Rancheria has been around awhile, so lets use the same statistical analysis on projected and actual Rancheria ADT’s as validation of the Plymouth numbers. Column I of table 2 is the measured ADT for Ridge Road and NY Ranch Road in 1990, the year before the Jackson Rancheria assumed it’s current operating form. Column II of Table 2 is the projected ADT for 2003 using the average 3% growth rate without including the Rancheria’s impact. Column III of Table 2 is the actual measured ADT for both roads which does take into account the Rancheria traffic. By comparing the projected and actual ADT’s we find the difference to be almost exactly the SANDAG estimated 10,000 traffic volume increase based on a 100,000 sq. ft. casino. This exercise proves conclusively the accuracy of the traffic growth projections for the proposed casino in Plymouth. They shoud also cause you to question the motive of anyone who disputes their validity.

  TABLE 2: RANCHERIA VALIDATION

  	I	II	III
  Location	1990 actual ADT	2003 proj ADT	2003 actual ADT
  NY Ranch Road	754	1107	6396
  Ridge Road	6637	9748	14350
  Totals	N/A	10855	20746

  Actual 20746 - Projected 10855 = 9891*
  

  *An actual ADT increase of 9891, when compared to the SANDAG estimated increase of 10,000 validates the projected numbers for Plymouth.

  What do these numbers really mean to the citizens of Plymouth? A traffic increase of three times the current rate could easily add 15 minutes to the commute time of those citizens using Highway 16 to Sacramento. That equates to an additional 5.42 days a year spent behind the wheel of your automobile. Over 19,000 cars per day is about 13 cars every minute. If you consider the impact during morning and evening rush hours, then that number could easily exceed 20 cars per minute. Contemplate trying to drive in and around Plymouth with that volume of cars coming and going. Unfortunately as traffic increases, the number of fender benders and fatal car accidents will also increase. The Rancheria doesn’t serve alcohol but the proposed casino in Plymouth will. As a reference point, the State of Connecticut has recorded the highest number of DUI/DWI arrests in that State on the access roads serving their casinos. You can expect a similar situation to occur here in Plymouth. When the DUI/DWI numbers for the Thunder Valley Casino in Lincoln become available, we will publish them here. How are you going to mitigate the death of someone killed by a drunk driver comming from the proposed casino in Plymouth?

  Casino proponents will push the myth that the traffic impact can be financially mitigated. The Amador County Transportation Commission has just completed the study for the Jackson Rancheria and their estimated fix for the traffic problems of that casino is 100 million dollars . They estimate Plymouth would need at least five lanes for their section of Highway 16/49 to support the proposed casino and the section of Highway 16 to Sacramento would need an additional passing lane. Construction of a 4 lane highway only eases congestion not the other negative aspects of that much traffic on our roads. During a budget crisis is the state going to make Highways 16 and 49, 4-lanes? Are the developers of the Plymouth casino? It took 12 years to get Caltrans to approve the Sutter Creek Bypass. How long before the State gets around to fixing the traffic problems we may face in Plymouth?

  These are real numbers and should be of real concern to the citizens of the Plymouth Area. How can you mitigate the traffic congestion, the noise, increase in accidents, and the pollution generated by over 28,000 cars and trucks? You can't, period. If someone is giving you a much lower estimate of the traffic impact, you should be asking yourself why?

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  Information on Water and Sewage

  WATER - a finite resource we all depend upon. Proponents of casino projects in this part of California are estimating usage of 60,000 to 80,000 gallons per day, minimum, with offers to truck in this quantity if it is not readily available. Trucking water into town adds significantly to local, daily, casino traffic estimates, and at the same time depletes a most important resource of the State - all for the benefit of an unwanted casino.

  Although they may deny it, there is also the possibility that the developers may instead choose to drill the necessary wells either for the casino or the related housing. Once the land is transferred into sovereign status as a reservation there will be no legally enforceable restrictions on how many wells are drilled or where they are drilled. If the water table falls significantly as a result and numerous local wells go dry, then there is nothing that can be done to mitigate this serious negative impact after the fact. Sound unlikely? That is exactly what happened to a small community adjacent to an Indian casino in San Diego County. Those homeowners are now forced to truck water in order to supply what all of us take for granted.

  SEWAGE - the usage of 60,000 to 80,000 gallons of water daily, on its face, demonstrates the enormous quantity of wastewater created and the overburdening of our sewer system [already at capacity] that would occur. Wells could be contaminated, or wells could be run dry, or BOTH.

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  Pollution

  POLLUTION - air quality can only be degraded by the horrific volume of traffic anticipated. Pollution also includes noise levels, water quality, your view of the night sky, and your way of life. We did not move to Plymouth to be surrounded by neon signs, nor did we move to Plymouth to endure bumper-to-bumper traffic through our town 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. We did not choose to reside in Plymouth to be close to noisy concert or arena events. Rather, we chose a peaceful City, a small town to raise our children, to know our neighbors, to enjoy quiet evenings, and the other innumerable benefits offered by the rural ambiance we have and wish to have remain.

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  Economic

  ECONOMIC - both our City and our County would suffer irreparable financial burdens.

  Our County cannot afford the increased financial burden caused by the development of a casino in Plymouth. The Jackson Rancheria currently creates a 1 to 1.2 million dollar financial impact on Amador County of which only about $230,000 is mitigated by payments from the Rancheria. There is another casino with it’s associated costs already approved but not yet constructed in the Buena Vista area near Ione. Currently suffering from a financial overburden by one casino; Amador County will be further financially challenged by its second casino. What sort of Financial disaster awaits Amador County with the construction of yet a third casino within a 15 mile radius of the previous two.

  The developers have indicated that they plan to build 3 restaurants and a business park in conjunction with the Plymouth casino. Our City merchants cannot compete with businesses that do not pay taxes, do not charge sales taxes, and are not required to pay for workman’s comp. The resulting failures of local businesses will mean a loss of tax base and will add yet more financial burdens to our citizens, to Plymouth and to Amador County. There will be jobs created with the casino development and their will also be jobs lost with local business failures. Indian casinos typically pay minimum wage to the majority of their employees and there is usually a fairly high turnover rate. With their economic advantage they can control the local job market both during the development stage and after the competition has failed.

  The developers of the proposed casino will claim that this financial impact can be mitigated by negotiating a Memorandum Of Understanding ( MOU). The MOU is a negotiated financial transfer between the tribal nation and the local governments. The MOU can be contrived as a one time payment or one covering a defined length of time. Numerous MOU’s in California cover a seven year period because that is typically the length of time established on the contract between the tribe government and the company selected to run the casino. At the conclusion of the seven years the MOU may need to be renewed. At this time the financial mitigation can be increased or decreased at the whims of the tribal government. There is no legal recourse to force the tribal government to deal with any increasing or unforeseen financial impacts. It is interesting to note that only one Indian casino in the state has agreed to a MOU in perpetuity...obviously a bad business decision from their point of view.

  It also needs to be noted that the developers of the proposed Plymouth casino have not as yet talked about financial mitigation for those people who live in the surrounding communities. Those of us who live in the Shenandoah Valley, Willow Springs, Fiddletown, Burke Ranch or other communities within a 15 mile radius also provide economic support for the business in Plymouth. We have a vested interest in the development of Plymouth and will be as severely impacted by the numerous negative aspects of this proposed casino as the residents themselves.

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  Crime

  The specific numbers indicate that 27% of all Felony crimes committed in Amador County are related in some way to the Jackson Rancheria. This appalling statistic equates to 105 felony arrests associated with the clientele that frequent the Rancheria. The most prevalent crimes are associated with drug use and drug sales in the Rancheria parking lot. This has occurred despite the Rancheria hiring extra security to correct the situation. Obviously, the proposed casino in Plymouth has the potential to become another source of drug related felonies that the county and city must contend with. This should be of serious concern to law abiding locals and of particular concern as it relates to our children.

  Law enforcement costs deriving from the Jackson Rancheria currently equate to 35% of the Amador Sheriff’s Budget. That number includes prorated costs for Sheriff Deputies, the County Jail, the District Attorney Office, and the required Public Defenders. As the Buena Vista casino develops, there will be additional felonies associated with that casino and additional financial costs to be borne by Amador County. The construction of yet a third casino in Plymouth will stretch the law enforcement capabilities of our county to the breaking point, and may in the longrun make us a lot less safe than we now are.

  Also of serious concern is that the Plymouth casino intends to serve Alcohol in one or more of its restaurants. Data collected from established Indian casinos that serve alcohol indicate that the DWI/DUI rate in the areas surrounding those casinos is significantly higher than the state average. Is this the future of Plymouth: increased exposure to drugs and felony crime, overextended law enforcement, and increased risk of unwanted exposure to drunk drivers?

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  Quality of Life

  QUALITY OF LIFE - casino promoters will own our City. The developers have indicated their intent to build housing for the members of the Miwok Tribe. In 1995 when the Ione band of Miwoks was officially reaffirmed by the Federal Government, they were 81 members strong. Today they number 534. A tribal government decides for itself what constitutes a member of the tribe and they can increase or decrease their ranks as they see fit. If all 534 of the current tribal membership establish a Plymouth address regardless of whether they actually live here, then they will have a numerically superior voting majority that will enable them to control the Plymouth City Council. Who knows what sort of MOU will result from a tribal government essentially negotiating with itself for the benefit of the tribal members at the expense of the rest of the Plymouth citizenry. A small amount of money paid to the City to "offset" any impacts may sound rational, but can it really mitigate the permanent changes that will result from casino development.

  A CASINO IN PLYMOUTH WILL CHANGE YOUR WAY OF LIFE FOREVER. HOW MUCH MONEY IS THAT WORTH TO YOU? YOU WILL NO LONGER BE SAFE WALKING THROUGH TOWN, CHATTING WITH FRIENDS AND NEIGHBORS; NOR WILL YOU KNOW THAT YOUR CHILDREN CAN SAFELY GO ANYWHERE. YOUR REASONS FOR SELECTING PLYMOUTH AS YOUR HOME, YOUR PLACE TO LIVE AND RAISE YOUR FAMILIES WILL NO LONGER EXIST.

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  This page, and all contents, are Copyright (C) 2003 by Citizens for No Casino In Plymouth (209) 245-6115
  

  

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